This is not a transition.

We are beginning to see what systemic disruption actually looks like.
 
Events in and around the Strait of Hormuz are not just an energy story. They are already rippling through fuel, fertiliser and food systems – a reminder of how tightly coupled, and how fragile, these systems are. This is how breakdown travels: through cascading effects.
 
This is not a transition.
 
A reduction in fossil fuel flows, under these conditions, is not a sign of successful climate action. Without preparation, without coordination, without resilience, it risks producing instability – including acute risks to food security.
 
Which raises a deeper question.
 
What would it actually look like to respond well?
 
In a new piece for Bending the Arc, I try to approach that question in a different way, sketching a near-future scenario – a way of thinking about what is already becoming possible – and inviting you to step into it.
 
What does that kind of disruption actually look like, if it continues?
 
“Harvests fail again—this time including Britain’s… Britain edges toward famine.”
 
This is an attempt to bring into focus the kinds of systemic stresses that can emerge when energy, food and climate pressures begin to interact.
 
Here is how the piece concludes:
 
I’ve kept it deliberately sketchy because even (or perhaps especially!) in this ‘best-case’ crisis-coping future, millions of people have acted in ways that cannot be predicted in detail. Much of the real story that I’ve imagined above happens before 2033, in choices already made – and still being made.
 
You are meant to fill in the gaps. As you read, you supply part of the backstory. I hope that you place yourself, and those you love, inside it. You turn a scenario into a story that might yet be written in the great book of life.
 
Because this is of course not a game.
 
This is our life.

You can read the full piece here.
 
I would strongly encourage you to take the time.
 
This is no longer theoretical.
 
What we are seeing now – disruptions to energy, to fertiliser, to food systems – are early signs of the kind of systemic stresses that will become more frequent in the years ahead.
 
The question is no longer whether disruption will happen.
 
The question is whether we face it in a fragmented way – or whether we begin, however imperfectly, to respond together.
 
That, ultimately, is what the idea of a climate majority is about.
 
If this resonates with you, please do share the piece. One of the challenges we face is not only understanding the risks, but building the shared ground from which meaningful action becomes possible.
 
We are entering a period where these questions will not remain theoretical for long.

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