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Precaution vs Promethean: The philosophical dividing line that will define 21st century politics
In the twentieth century, ideological dispute focussed on the battle between Left and Right, Labour and Capital. That struggle is still very relevant. But it’s become clear that it’s only one part of a much bigger picture. For, over the past couple of generations it’s become clear that the leading forces on both sides of that struggle share much common ground: they are both signed up to ‘growthism’, the belief that endless ‘economic growth’ is possible and desirable. That belief has been shattered by humanity’s breaching of the ecological limits to growth, as witnessed first by the ozone hole and then by ongoing climate crisis. Yet – because of ideological…
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Risky business: what philosophy can tell us about dealing with uncertainty, systemic risk, and potential catastrophe
The Philippines Supreme Court recently made a worldwide landmark decision, from a jurisprudential point of view, invoking for the first time ever the precautionary principle as a decisive basis for acting against GM crops. This decision has come under fire from scientists in the Philippines and America for being ‘anti-science’, but it has also been strongly defended. The defence throws up an issue of interest for philosophers, as the case for the defence prominently invokes recent work on the precautionary principle. Ever since the precautionary principle was first invented, critics have argued that it is merely a naïve and blunt instrument for blocking policy that various lobby groups do not…
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The Storm and the butterfly
In the 19th and 20th centuries, standard economic models assumed that people would act in a rational and predictable manner. These models are flawed, of course, for if modern psychology has taught us anything it is that we are massively complex beings who are ultimately in important respects not predictable, often not rational, and certainly often rational in ways that are judged irrational by ‘experts’. We are moreover (and this is less widely understood) not predictable not only in practice but also in principle: i.e. this is not a limitation that can be overcome. For if the human future could be predicted, it would then be deliberately altered. Therefore it…
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Philippines GMO ban is the Precautionary Principle in action
As reported recently on The Ecologist, The Philippines has banned GM crop trials until further notice. The GM-testing-mega-coprorations are going to have to find a new testing ground. The Philippines have defiantly set a global precedent with their decision, through their invocation in it of the Precautionary Principle. Taiwan too have taken a step in this direction banning GM foods in school meals; Hawaii has banned GMOs on the Big Island. And with Thailand set to follow these two countries after a number of widespread protests against their new proposed ‘Biological Safety Bill’, GMOs could be in for a rough ride, and maybe even worldwide retreat. That is certainly what…
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Climate science is to geo-engineering as genetics is to GM food
Now, I have of course nothing against engineering per se. But whether a form of engineering/technology should be adopted or not ought always to be prima facie an open question. A question to be settled through public debate and wide-ranging interdisciplinary and political discussion, not through mere appeal to the alleged epistemic authority of geneticists. There is nothing remotely anti-scientific about questioning GM technology. Nor does such questioning in any way spill over into questioning genuine sciences. For example, I do not for a moment question climate-science’s scientific status. Sciences are sciences, and forms of engineering are forms of engineering / technologies. The effort of some genetic engineers to inherit…
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How to end our love affair with evidence
A central aspect of my philosophical work these days is this: to warn against over-estimating, for example, how much one can learn from past financial crises, in thinking about future financial crises. How much, to put it in more general – and philosophical – terms, one can learn inductively. There is plenty one can learn; but there is also a severe limit on what one can learn. There is a limit, in other words, on the value of evidence. The danger of not being continually aware of this point is that one may think, at least unconsciously, that there are specific lessons to learn and that, once one has learnt…
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MPs’ GMO report is a scandalous cave-in to corporate demands
The House of Commons Science and Technology select committee has just this morning published the results of its inquiry into genetically modified crops and our attitude to them within the EU. I was one of a number of contributors of evidence to the select committee. I felt compelled to do so, despite my fears (which I made clear at the time along with a number of colleagues), that the stated reasons for conducting the inquiry prejudged the result. Today’s publication, which is making headline news across the entire press, has sadly shown that these fears were well founded. The preamble to the terms of reference for the inquiry declares that…
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The Precautionary Principle (with application to the genetic modification of organisms)
We present a non-naive version of the Precautionary (PP) that allows us to avoid paranoia and paralysis by confining precaution to specific domains and problems. PP is intended to deal with uncertainty and risk in cases where the absence of evidence and the incompleteness of scientific knowledge carries profound implications and in the presence of risks of “black swans”, unforeseen and unforeseable events of extreme consequence. We formalize PP, placing it within the statistical and probabilistic structure of ruin problems, in which a system is at risk of total failure, and in place of risk we use a formal fragility based approach. We make a central distinction between 1) thin…
